As we approach the business-end of the season, one hoped-for reality of the NBA has come into focus: The league’s goal to create more parity is working.
We’ve got several elite teams, yes, but there are a host of other would-be contenders lurking just below this season’s Big Three — rejuvenated former-juggernauts, here-they-come youth movements, surging question marks and other teams that could, if it all breaks right, surprise everyone.
Even among the elite, some small-market teams are romping, poised to win now and for years to come. The road to the Finals no longer necessarily rolls solely through the lands of LeBron James and Steph Curry, nor through Celtics green. And the future is full of myriad newbies who could, soon, contend.
With exactly one month left before the playoffs, we can spot 10 possible NBA contenders in a hope-filled view of who could win it all.
Tier 1: The elite teams
There are just three teams atop the NBA’s season-long, king-of-the-hill marathon. The Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder are head and shoulders above everyone else.
Each boasts a top-10 offense and defense, historically a strong indicator of a championship-level team. The Cavs (first and sixth), the Celtics (third and fifth) and the Thunder (fourth and first) have that balance associated with the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
And yet.
As great as they are — and they are great — their march to June glory is far from assured. These versions of the Thunder and Cavs have not been to a conference finals, let alone a Finals, and the road to a ring, as the Celtics can surely tell you, is usually paved with fits and starts, including conference finals and Finals letdowns. It’s often a slow, methodical journey.
Yes, one of these unproven teams could win it all this year. But they could also come up short, just as the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown-led Celtics did in 2023, 2022, 2020, 2018 and 2017. Those were all years Boston made at least the conference finals but failed to win it all.
In every one of those seasons other than 2020, the Celtics finished at least in second place in the Eastern Conference.
Point is: Winning in the regular season is one thing. Winning in the playoffs is something else entirely, and often takes time even for the most formidable organizations.
Speaking of the Celtics, this year’s version is trying to defy recent history and show back-to-back champs can still be a thing. The league is sitting on a streak of seven straight NBA seasons without a repeat champion.
Sure, Boston can win it all. They’re my favorite. But there’s a reason grabbing that glory has gotten harder.
Which brings us to some of the other teams that could keep that revolving-door-of-NBA champions swinging round as the leagues’s parity reality continues to ramp up.
Tier 2: Recalibrated, rejuvenated and utterly dangerous
Both the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors are good enough to win it all this year, a statement of fact that would have been preposterous before the trade deadline changed everything.
Yes, the Lakers need LeBron James back and healthy, a hope that’s currently accompanied by a question mark as they await his return from a groin injury. But when he does come back, and if he can stay healthy, the 40-year-old will be at the tail end of a season almost as good as the one from 2012-13, when he last won a Most Valuable Player award.
The Lakers also have the best defense in the league since Jan. 6, a stretch of a whopping 28 games — and, it is worth noting, a stretch in which the now-departed Anthony Davis played only nine times.
Throw in the obvious addition of Luka Dončić, and they can win the whole thing, this year.
The Warriors are in a very similar spot. They’re an outstanding defensive team rejuvenated by the trade-deadline arrival of Jimmy Butler and buoyed by the remarkable level of their own older all-time great.
Since the trade deadline, Golden State has the league’s third-best record, fifth-best offense and fourth-best defense — a team on par with Tier 1. We’ve seen, particularly, a liberated Stephen Curry (who became the founding member of the NBA’s 4,000 career 3-pointers club on Thursday night). With Butler joining Curry, the Warriors are contenders yet again.
Tier 3: The best player means it’s possible
Nikola Jokić.
That’s it. That’s the analysis.
Yes, the Denver Nuggets have a lackluster defense. Jamal Murray has a high ceiling but also lulls that can be worrisome, particularly if your goal is title or bust. Michael Porter Jr. is … the same guy he’s been for a long time. And so on.
Same as two years ago, when Jokić carried a mediocre defense and a team many doubted could be great in the postseason all the way. Throw in a vastly improved Christian Braun, a wow-he’s-still-good Russell Westbrook, and, of course, mostly just the best player on earth, and anything’s possible.
Tier 4: So you’re saying there’s a chance
Let’s start with the New York Knicks here. While New York fans might bemoan the lack of surety and “respect” in this tier, it’s for good reason. The Knicks have a high ceiling, but they also have a mediocre defense.
Plus an uncertain playoff track record.
Plus having to sweat Jalen’s Brunson’s rolled ankle.
But they do have a high-octane offense supercharged by last summer’s trade for Karl-Anthony Towns, who’s having a banner year. And their individual defensive pieces, particularly on the perimeter, suggest defensive-minded head coach Tom Thibodeau may be able to flip that switch come April.
If Brunson, the favorite for the Clutch Player of the Year Award, is right when it matters most, and the Knicks hold up beneath the minutes Thibs liked to pile upon them, New York could do something special.
The Memphis Grizzlies are in a similar spot, worried about Jaren Jackson Jr.’s own ankle injury. The Grizzlies also have to fret after their own talismanic point guard, Ja Morant — because we always have to fret about Ja Morant’s durability.
But he, like Brunson in New York, is an otherworldly player, and if he stays healthy, and JJJ gets back going by the playoffs, this Memphis team can create some magic. They have one of those top-10 offenses and defenses we talked about like the Celtics, Thunder and Cavs, a nice bit of depth, and more experience together than several other top teams.
Last on this list are the Indiana Pacers.
Yes, the Pacers.
OK, so it’s a pet belief of mine, but hear me out. They made the Conference Finals last year, Tyrese Halliburton has shown flashes lately of what he can do, Pascal Siakam seems grossly underrated, and Rick Carlisle remains one of the game’s best coaches.
On Dec. 13, they were 11-15 and languishing with other bad teams in the play-in zone. Since then, they have the game’s sixth-best record while being fifth in offensive rating and 11th defensively.
That’s a 39-game run in which all the metrics, and last year’s run, suggest not to sleep on Indiana.
Tier 5: Miracles can happen
The Minnesota Timberwolves are sitting on a six-game winning streak, and they’re also almost in that elusive club of teams with top-10 offenses and defenses: 11th offensively, seventh in D.
While KAT is now in New York, Anthony Edwards still has it in him to carry a team. They’d be best served fighting off the Warriors for the final guaranteed playoff spot, but we saw last year, when Ant gets going and Minnesota’s defense locks in, that they can beat some real teams come the playoffs.
The Los Angeles Clippers have a similar argument, even if it’s harder, in 2025, to summon the same kind of optimism you’d need to take it seriously, even if I’m the wrong person to push their case. They’ll certainly be a play-in team. But maybe there are reasons to hope.
This plucky Clippers team does have the league’s fourth-best defense, plus James Harden, plus — we said we were going to be optimistic — one Kawhi Leonard.
Yes, trying to talk yourself into believing in Kawhi in March is a lot like trying to talk yourself into believing in the Sixers in early November. Seems smart at the time, only to remember later you’re an idiot. (I’m talking about myself here).
Tier 6: Sorry, but it’s still A Doc Rivers team
Wrote this exact same thing last year and got it right then, too.
Yes, while the Milwaukee Bucks did wash out early in the playoffs that time, it’s also true that Giannis Antetokounmpo missed his team’s opening-round series while Damian Lillard struggled with his own injury.
But a full season under Rivers — he just needs a training camp!, they told us — hasn’t exactly given Milwaukee the sheen of an NBA title force. They’re jostling with the Pacers and Pistons for the four, five and six spots in the East, they’re good-but-not-great offensively, and, yes, Doc is still the wrong guy.
Still, what the hell, throw them on the list. They do have Giannis (see: Tier 4). Maybe Rivers, after 15 years, will at least get back to another NBA Finals.
That gives us 12 potential title contenders in 2025. The teams below are not title contenders this season, but still worth mentioning.
Tier 7: Too soon, but that day is coming fast
It’s hard not to love the Houston Rockets, Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic (at least, with the Magic, if you’re my guy, Beyond The Arc co-host John Gonzalez).
All three have young, exciting cores, great coaches, and exciting years ahead. The Rockets and Pistons have shown that this season, and each will be a playoff team able to turn fine seasons into critical experience for future runs.
The Magic have been undermined by injuries this time around, and still need to find an offense, but they have the NBA’s second-best defense, and a Paolo Banchero-Franz Wagner future is a bright one.
Let’s also throw the San Antonio Spurs on here, despite the worries about Victor Wembanyama’s future and the fact De’Aaron Fox just got shut down for the rest of the season. When Wemby is back, they will be a rising force out West.
Tier 8: ‘I coulda been a contender’
Take Marlon Brando dressed in the jersey of one of these teams, put him on the waterfront, and add some forlornness and regret, and you’ve arrived at Tier 8.
All of Atlanta, Miami, Sacramento, Dallas and Phoenix may, in some parallel universe, be in the mix, full of optimism and making plans for playoff basketball in May and maybe beyond.
What if the Heat hadn’t gotten sideways with Jimmy Butler? What if the Kings had made it work with De’Aaron Fox, or at least not tried to create the Chicago Bulls West? What if Phoenix hadn’t allowed Bradley Beal to keep a no-trade clause? What if Atlanta, all those years ago, had drafted Luka Doncic instead of Trae Young or had properly navigated their promise a few years after that when they did indeed make the Eastern Conference finals?
What if Dallas … well, you know.
Just: What if.
Each of these teams are a reminder of the fine line between competing and capitulating, between being somebody and wishing, at least in basketball terms, you were someone else entirely.
